Football Over Under Explained
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- College Football Over Under Picks Explained
- Football Odds Over Under Explained
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Over Under betting in football is when the combined score of the two teams goes over or under the sportsbooks combined score limit. Learn how to bet them.
Are you great at predicting the final score of a team and want to put your money where your mouth is?
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Over Under betting is a good way to do this very thing, and it is a wagering technique often overlooked by novice football bettors. On the other hand, professional gamblers are the first to tell you that it is a key way to make money from sports betting in addition to the other bets you place on your favorite team.
We explain the Over Under bets in detail with examples in American Football and European Football. Learn to read the odds and what strategies can you use.
Football Over Under Betting Explained
Most bettors are familiar with the classic win/lose bet, or the Money Line. With your basic money line odds, you can bet on whether or not a team will win. What emerges here is a favorite and an underdog which have their betting strategy perspective. However, this does not examine what the final score will be. Evaluating how many points the winning team will accumulate is the magic in football over/under betting.
How Over Under Betting is Played Online
Depending on which online sportsbook you use, the way that over/under betting will be represented is by placing a proposed final combined score next to the two teams before the game begins. Once the game begins, you will no longer be able to change your bet.
For example, it will list a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns as 55. This means that the game points totals from each team will combine to be at least 55 points. A bettor will decide to take the Over or Under of that score.
In European Football it could be be an Over Under 4 for Manchester United vs Liverpool. If a bettor selects the Over and the game ends Manchester United 3 – 2 Liverpool then you win the Over bet, as the combined final score is Over 4. Under bettors lose the bet.
Calculating Over Under Odds
Football Over Under Explained Shotguns
With a win/lose bet, there is always a set of odds that have a negative number and a positive number when it comes to Vegas Odds or American Odds. For this reason, it can be confusing to see that in Over Under betting the two teams playing a game against each other may have odds that both have negative numbers.
For the example of the Colts vs. the Browns, the odds may be -150 Over or – 150 Under.
This is rarely the case but here is how sportsbooks determine odds. It is a game of supply and demand, If for example most bettors take the Under then the odds will increase for the Under reducing its payout or value, and making the Over more valuable or bigger payout. The odds could end up looking something like -200 Under and 150 Over. In other words, a $200 Under bet would payout $100 dollars and a $100 Over bet would payout $150. The more bettors take the Under the more the odds will shift.
If you understand the money lines system of odds, you should have no problem grasping the odds used in over/under betting. To recap, money lines have positive and negative numbers. Typically, the positive numbers are the easiest to calculate if you use a $100 bet. For instance, a +150 bet means that you will win $150, a +350 means you win $350, etc.
For negative money lines odds, the same is not true. Instead, you will always have math to figure out. Thankfully, we live in the age of the internet and this means we no longer need to write these calculations out by hand. Simply search for an online betting calculator for money lines and put in the numbers to see how much you will win.
To illustrate the point, -75 odds will give $133.33 on a $100 bet.
For other negative odds, you can expect $90.91 for -110, $40 for -250, $13.30 for -750, etc.
Which is the Value Bet of the two? That is were handicapping skills come in on any sport. It is an integral part of a betting strategy and the cornerstone of being profitable. Developing a handicapping system is the reason most bettors quit, it takes time a lot of it. That is why many programmers developed Handicapping Sports Betting Software for their successfull betting systems. What the software does is analyze all of the variables and reduce the handicapping time to seconds. The goal of using handicapping software is to analyze is the betting opportunity is 60% or more a Value Bet or not.
Point Spreads in Over Under Betting
Not every betting site will provide an option for point spreads in over/under betting. Regardless, when they do, it means that you have a likelihood of higher risk and therefore more winnings from the bet. You will be able to recognize point spreads because they will have an additional number next to the odds that have decimal points.
These decimal point numbers mean that the combined score must surpass the given number by a certain amount of points.
For example, if the Colts vs. Browns have 55 (-150 Over 3.5), then you know that the combined score must be four points above 55 (or at least 59) in order to win the bet. Point spreads added to over/under betting are typically 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5. In spite of this, do not be surprised if you see a 9.5 or 12.5 point spread. Clearly, the higher the number in a point spread, the higher the risk, and the bigger the payout.
And if you are asking why the point spread ends with a .5 it is to avoid a draw in the bet, if the final combined score is 58 then you lose, 59 you win.
Best Over Under Betting Tip
Most betting sites want your business and they do not want to tell you that one of the best wagering strategies is to go where you feel you will make the most profit. In other words, if you calculated the odds at one website and do not like the amount you will win, there is still hope. Simply log in at another wagering website and see if their Over Under betting odds are more profitable.
Clearly, sportsbooks already know that this is the strategy for most online bettors. For this reason, the websites will often over-compensate for bad odds. In order to keep you on their website and placing bets, they may offer you free bets or bonus bets on bad odds days. Depending on how they operate, it could be your chance to help them while helping yourself to an over/under bet that you never paid for — and therefore cannot lose.
Soon on our Homepage bettors will be able to check which betting site offers the best odds for the same bet.
The over/under bet – along with the spread and moneyline – is one of three basic wagers you can make. It’s a single bet based on picking between one of two outcomes in one game. Each of the three wager types are winnable in the long run.
The concept here is simple. By placing this bet, you are trying to project the total number of points that will be scored in a given game or match. Typically, you will see the implied total listed alongside the point spread and moneyline when you take a look at a game listed on the schedule.
Totals bets are usually listed alongside point spread and moneyline bets.
We can use Super Bowl LI as an example. The over/under for the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons is listed at 59.5. This is exceptionally high for an NFL game – it’s the highest projection in the history of the Super Bowl – but it means you can place a bet on whether the two teams will combine to score more or less than 59.5 points in the game.
So, if the final score is 34-31, for example, those that took the over will win the bet. If the game ends 24-17, the under is the winner. It is quite simple.
Patriots vs. Falcons at Bovada.
In addition to the total points the teams will combine to score, you can also bet on an individual team’s implied total. Let’s say the Falcons are expected to score 27.5 points. The same rules apply here. If you think they will score at least 28, then hit the over. And vice versa.
Football
Obviously, the value of the implied total changes depending on the sport. If a football game is expected to be a defensive struggle, the over/under will be substantially lower than the one we used in our example above. Typically, a football game that is expected to be fairly low scoring will carry an over/under in the low-to-mid 40s.
Over/under betting does not simply end with team totals, however. You may also be interested in placing prop bets regarding individual player statistics.
You can bet on just about everything when it comes to the Super Bowl, of course. Prop bets are what make the game even more entertaining than it would normally be. If you think Tom Brady is a lock to surpass 300 passing yards in a given game, you can hammer the over on that and (hopefully) collect a little extra cash.
You can bet on the number of touchdowns, touchdown passes, interceptions, rushing yards, receiving yards and just about anything else you can think of. There are several sources of statistics for football such as Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFL.com.
Basketball
College Football Over Under Picks Explained
Basketball is the sport that obviously brings the most scoring. Most NBA teams average over 100 points per game, so most implied totals stretch well into the 200s.
For example, a game in mid-January between the high-powered Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets had a whopping over/under of 237.5. This is certainly on the high end. A standard high-scoring basketball game would likely see an implied total closer to 220 points.
Games between high-scoring teams like Warriors vs. Rockets tend to have high totals.
As is the case with football, you can bet on player statistics in basketball, as well. Will Stephen Curry hit at least 5.5 three-pointers in a game? Will James Harden score over or under 30.5 points? Will Rudy Gobert block more or less than 2.5 shots?
Baseball, Hockey and Soccer
Unlike football or basketball, there is not nearly as much scoring in baseball, soccer or hockey. This will be the exception in certain games, but more often than not scoring in these three sports tends to be fairly sparse.
Of these three, baseball tends to see the most scoring. Much of the expected scoring in baseball is dependent upon where a game is played. If a game is set to take place at a friendly environment for hitters such as Coors Field in Denver or Globe Life Park in Texas, it is not uncommon to see an implied total reaching into double figures.
Coors Field is MLB’s most hitter-friendly park.
Most baseball games tend to hover around six or seven runs in a standard game in a ballpark that may not be particularly favorable to hitters.
The props exist for baseball players, too. Will Clayton Kershaw strike out more or less than 8.5 players while he’s on the mound? Will Giancarlo Stanton slug over or under 0.5 home runs tonight? The statistical categories are not as wide-ranging as they may be in football or basketball, but you can still get in on that fun here.
Most hockey lines tend to sit in the 5.5 goal range. The NHL has made several rule changes in an attempt to boost scoring throughout the past two decades, failing to increase scoring totals (in fact, there’s been a constant decrease). It is difficult to put the puck in the net, so even the worst defensive teams will typically still be in that 5.5 range.
In most professional soccer leagues, teams score an average of at least two goals per game (the highest league averages are over four goals per game). though that certainly changes based on which teams are involved. A game involving a high-powered team such as Barcelona against a far lesser foe could see an over/under as high as 5.5. If the match is pitting two stingy defenses against one another, though, that over/under can go as low as 1.5.
Will Lionel Messi score more or less than 0.5 goals? Will he dish out more or less than 0.5 assists? Will David De Gea make at least 3.5 saves over the course of the 90-minute game?
As is the case when gambling on any sport, doing research in an attempt to familiarize yourself with the game itself is crucial to success.
Football Odds Over Under Explained
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the over/under ever change leading up to game time?
It is not at all uncommon for the bet to change leading up to a game, just as a spread or moneyline will. Bookmakers pay close attention to trends and other factors that may impact the way a game turns out. For example, totals for Super Bowl LI was initially set at 57.5 before jumping up to 59.5.
Paying close attention to injuries, weather conditions and other factors that may affect the way a game is played is highly recommended.
How do I know which teams are more likely to go over or under?
Records of every team’s performance regarding overs and unders are kept all over the place. All you have to do is a quick Internet search to find out how any team typically fares against the implied total line.
If you are betting on football, checking the way a quarterback has fared historically may be a good indicator of future success. If Tom Brady is 18-9 to the OVER, then taking New England on the over, especially in a favorable matchup, would seem to be the wise play.
As you would expect, inclement weather can play a big part in affecting scoring on sports played outdoors. Throwing and catching a football is difficult already, but it becomes quite a bit more challenging when the players are having to fight through snowy conditions or a pouring rainstorm.
Are there any differences between college games and the pros?
When you look at the total bets for the NFL and then for college football you’ll notice they are quite different. More often than not, the NCAA football games are listed with high point totals, while professional games tend to be lower. (See scoring stats for college vs. the pros.)
Often NCAA football games feature teams that are mismatched and one club will run up the score. Scores often escalate in college football in order for a team to show its superiority and gain a higher national ranking. In the NFL, it tends to be tougher to drive up point totals because teams are more evenly matched and also it doesn’t matter how much a team wins by because a win in the pros is simply a win whether it’s by one or 30 points.
Is this a good bet?
If you do your homework and can make a reasonable determination on a given game, the answer is yes. You’ll find totals bet opportunities in every sport where teams can score an unlimited amount of points. Don’t feel compelled to bet on every opportunity. Pick and choose the games that seem to offer the clearest choice.